A September to Remember

Bill and Elizabeth Campbell of McCaskill & Co Jewelers in Destin, FL, enjoy the sights, sounds and great food of Charleston last night on their visit to our new offices here in Charleston, SC. We loved seeing you Bill and Eliz! (pictured Above).

September Surprise

In early spring I told you that the May, June and July jewelry sales would see solid growth but sales in August and September would soften. I was wrong. . After an amazing and much needed first quarter, spring sales continued to grow and like any good conservative jeweler worth his weight in melee, I knew it couldn’t continue forever. The numbers tell another story.

Here are the sales figures for Ideal Marketing Group jewelers across the country since May:
June     up 10.27%
July         up 23.15%
August    up 23.53%
Sept up 26.94%

Not only was September the second strongest month of the year so far, only three Ideal Marketing Group stores posted negative numbers! The big gainers were Jones Bros,, Peoria, IL, up 11.18%, Perry’s Emporium, Wilmington, NC, up 71.46%, Hal Davis, Boise, up 83.56% and Well’s & Co in Virginia Beach,up an amazing 194.61%. Those stores aside the rest of the group posted modest gains, so the group numbers were boosted by a few amazing increases. The take away however is that September was not as soft as most of us expected. I think the strong stock market in September, the biggest September on record, indicate that those with money expect that things are indeed are getting better. Optimism drives both the stock market and fine jewelry sales.

The Rolex Index

I find it fascinating that fear really is the most powerful of all market forces. When gold was at $850 and ounce a year ago people were throwing the gold at you so fast you could hardly weigh it. Today, with Gold over $1300, the gold buying business has softened to a trickle. How is that possible? Now certainly, there are still sellers, and there are more competitors trying to buy gold, but the real reason for the slowing of gold selling is metaphysical. People are simply not as afraid as they were a year ago. We see this in Rolex sales. Since late April Rolex sales have been on the steady increase after collapsing over 50% in 08-09. You see, if you watch Rolex sales you will see an almost perfect indicator of where the economy is really headed. I call this the Rolex Index. You see the vast majority of Rolex buyers are male, heads of households. They are often self employed and earn over $250K per year. These are the real drivers of the US economy. If these guys believe that next year will be better than the last, that better days are ahead, they will buy a Rolex. If they are rolling in the money…they buy two. Right now the Rolex Index says very clearly that our overall economy is improving and that sales through the holidays will be better than last year. I’m sticking with the “smart money” and working hard to prove them right.